Manipur Violence Marks Two Years: Rule of Law or Rule of Guns? A Ground Report from President’s Rule Manipur

THE NORTHEASTERN state of Manipur has been in turmoil since May 3, 2023, when ethnic violence broke out between the Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities. Now, as it marks two years, the state remains deeply fractured, plagued by a crisis that continues to defy political, administrative, and military interventions. On February 13, 2025, the Central government finally imposed President’s Rule following the resignation of Chief Minister N. Biren Singh on February 9. The move, seen by many as long overdue, came only after over 250 lives were lost, more than 60,000 people were displaced, and countless others were injured.

Even under direct central administration, the question persists: is Manipur governed by the rule of law, or by the rule of guns wielded by insurgents and militant groups who continue to act with impunity? There have been some recent talks between the CSOs of the two communities, and discussions involving the legislators of the Naga, Kuki, and Meitei communities under the initiative of the Ministry of Home Affairs in New Delhi. However, no concrete solution or final resolution to end the violence has emerged. Many organisations in both the hills and the valley are also preparing to mark this May 3 from different perspectives, but these observations should not be allowed to instigate or promote any false or dangerous narratives.

One of the central issues plaguing Manipur is the role of Kuki militant groups operating under the Suspension of Operation (SoO) agreement. Originally intended to foster peace, these arrangements have paradoxically enabled these groups to entrench their influence across Kuki-dominated areas, often defying both state and central authorities. Many reports suggest that a substantial number of Kuki militants reside in India illegally, having crossed over from Myanmar, and are not Indian citizens. These groups have long harbored aspirations for a separate “Kukiland,” an ethno-nationalist dream that envisions breaking off parts of India, Myanmar, and Bangladesh.

Statements from political and community leaders, including Mizoram Chief Minister Lalduhoma during a visit to another country, have lent credence to this vision, further emboldening separatist ambitions. Such aspirations have been systematically pursued through covert and overt means, including propaganda and intimidation.

Despite being under the SoO, many Kuki groups have frequently violated the ground rules. Extortion, arms smuggling, and open intimidation were rampant even before the eruption of violence in May 2023. Security agencies, although aware of these activities, have often been accused of inaction. This perceived negligence emboldened these groups, who have since graduated from local-level criminality to becoming a full-blown threat to state integrity and democratic institutions.

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The violence of May 2023 marked a turning point. It wasn’t just random clashes, but an orchestrated campaign. Reports indicate that Kuki militants under the SoO were among the first to initiate firing and attacks against Meitei villages. In response, the Meitei community took up arms, primarily traditional ones like barrel guns, in self-defense. Following calls by the Governor of Manipur, Ajay Kumar Bhalla, for disarmament, Meitei groups largely complied, surrendering a substantial number of weapons. However, Kuki groups have surrendered very few, as confirmed by the daily releases from the Manipur Police. The so-called “village volunteers” still hold on to sophisticated arms, defying the law.

The lawlessness has not spared even high-ranking officials and revered cultural institutions. Earlier this year, Supreme Court Judge Justice N. Kotiswar, who hails from the Meitei community, was prevented from entering Churachandpur by the local Bar Association—a move that stunned legal and civil rights communities. Despite being a judge of the country’s highest court, his entry into a part of Indian territory was blocked solely due to his ethnic identity. This act was not orchestrated by militants, but by a legal body well-versed in constitutional values, raising alarming questions about the normalization of ethnic hostility and defiance.

Similarly, six Kuki-Zo organisations issued warnings against the observance of the age-old Thangjing Hill pilgrimage, a sacred Meitei ritual held in April. Their agitation and protests against the event were seen as a direct assault on the cultural rights of the Meitei community. Rajya Sabha MP and Titular King Sanajaoba Leishemba strongly condemned the threats, stating that such actions could not be tolerated for long. Civil society organisations also decried the threats as unconstitutional and provocative.

In a revealing twist, Thanlon MLA Vungzagin Valte, a Kuki-Zo legislator, initially called for peace and mutual respect among communities in a televised interview after recovering from injuries sustained during the early stages of the violence. His words offered a glimmer of hope. However, days later, a video surfaced in which Valte, seemingly reading from a prepared statement, reversed his stance and claimed that only separate administration could bring peace to Manipur.

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This dramatic volte-face suggested intense pressure from behind the scenes. It also underscored the stranglehold that extremist elements exert over moderate voices within their own communities. In Manipur’s current climate, it appears that even elected representatives are not free to speak from the heart.

In a worrying development on April 21, 2025, the SP Office of Kangpokpi District issued a statement warning uniformed personnel of the Civil Police, Manipur Rifles (MR), and India Reserve Battalion (IRB) against attending a meeting called by the Kangchup Area Protection and Development Committee (KAPDC), an organization operating under the aegis of Kuki Inpi. The meeting was scheduled for April 30 in K. Ponlen village.

The police termed the organisation “fictitious” and stated that any uniformed personnel attending the meeting would face disciplinary action. This bold call for insubordination reflects a growing parallel power structure operating within the state—one that challenges the very authority of government forces and threatens the core values of discipline, neutrality, and constitutional duty in India’s security apparatus.

The imposition of President’s Rule in February 2025 brought temporary relief. Sporadic firing incidents have reduced. Yet, normalcy remains elusive. Free movement across the state is still restricted despite directives from Union Home Minister Amit Shah. Trust between communities is shattered, and the silence of many central institutions only deepens the public’s disillusionment.

Manipur today is confronting an existential crisis. The unchecked activities of illegal militants, often described as narco-terrorists, continue to endanger the peace and integrity of the state. Their influence permeates civil society, politics, law enforcement, and even cultural institutions. The longer the central government delays stringent action, the more emboldened these groups become.

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It is time for the Indian state to reaffirm its commitment to the Constitution and the rule of law. Selective tolerance of armed groups undermines national unity and erodes faith in democratic processes. The people of Manipur, both Meitei and Kuki, deserve peace, justice, and the assurance that their futures will not be hijacked by extremists or ignored by apathetic authorities.

President’s Rule must not become a passive administrative phase. It should serve as a critical reset button, an opportunity to restore the authority of the law, rebuild communal trust, and dismantle the power structures of illegal armed groups.

Until then, the question will continue to haunt Manipur: is it governed by the rule of law or by the rule of guns?

Moirangthem Nganbarel Meetei is currently working as a journalist. Views are personal.

(The opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Ukhrul Times. Ukhrul Times values and encourages diverse perspectives.)