THE FORTUNES of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies in several northeastern states appear to be waning, as they have suffered losses to the Congress and regional parties in the 2024 parliamentary elections. The year-long ethnic conflict between a minority community and the dominant Meitei community in Manipur, without any serious efforts to resolve the crisis and restore peace and communal harmony, now seems more like an attempt to browbeat one of the minorities in Manipur into submission.
The minority communities in the states are worried by the ill-treatment meted out to their brethren in the ethnic conflict. The Kuki-Zo minority has suffered terribly at the hands of the majority Meiteis, who are sometimes covertly, sometimes openly, supported by the state government dominated by the Meitei community. The Meiteis control the state government with 40 MLAs out of a House of 60 and eight ministers, including the chief minister. Manipur has experienced more than a year of lawlessness, but the state government is not concerned about the unauthorized occupation of Kuki-Zo buildings in Imphal city by radical elements, the undeclared economic blockade of Churachandpur district by Meitei organizations, open extortion by radicals, free movement of radical elements within Imphal, and the inability of the ten Kuki-Zo MLAs and their tribes to return to Imphal, the state capital.
As the unresolved conflict drags on, battle fatigue and despondency now prevail throughout the state. People have stopped talking about the conflict out of disgust and shame. No one supports the continuation of the internecine fight between the two communities anymore, except for the radical elements, for whom the persistent conflict has become their bread and butter. The ceaseless ongoing conflict in Manipur, without any signs of a serious intention to resolve the crisis by the state and central governments, has adversely affected the image of the BJP. Even the RSS chief recently stated that the Manipur crisis needs to be resolved on priority.
The impact of the ethnic violence in Manipur on the outcome of the parliamentary election results may not be discernible in mainland India, but it is clearly evident in the states of Mizoram, Nagaland, Meghalaya, and Manipur, where the BJP and its allies lost parliamentary seats to the Congress and regional parties. The Manipur conflict provided an opportunity for the Congress and the regional parties to paint the BJP and its allies in a bad light during the election campaign.
Also read | Congress gifted two seats: An outcome of inept handling of Manipur ethnic conflict
The knee-jerk reactions of the central government, such as the withdrawal of the Free Movement Regime (FMR) as a consequence of a remedial action to contain the Manipur crisis, added insult to injury. The decision to scrap the FMR and erect border fencing, on the recommendation of the Manipur chief minister, was not well received by the tribes of the affected states in Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram. Mizoram, which is sheltering more than 40,000 refugees from Myanmar, has not faced any crisis as they have kept the refugees confined in camps at the border area while extending all humanitarian assistance.
Contrary to the policy adopted by Mizoram, the Manipur government turned refugees back to Myanmar without realizing that only a short portion of the boundary is fenced. This made the refugees walk into Manipur from the unfenced areas and set up shelters. Without any humanitarian assistance, they were compelled to erect their own shelters and carry out farming for sustenance, perhaps including poppy.
Had the Manipur government acted similarly to the Mizoram government, there would not have been any unauthorized settlements of refugees and farming. The remedy to the temporary movement of refugees, on account of atrocities committed against ethnic minorities in Myanmar by the ruling junta, is not the removal of the FMR.
The scrapping of the FMR and the erection of border fencing by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) conveyed a message to the tribes in Nagaland, Mizoram, and Manipur that the BJP cares more for the Meiteis than the minority tribes in the northeastern states. This knee-jerk reaction of the MHA contributed to the dislike for the BJP and regional parties associated with them, resulting in losses for the BJP and its allies in the just-concluded parliamentary elections.
The inept handling of the communal situation between the Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities not only caused deaths and the destruction of property but also adversely impacted the economy and ushered in a state of lawlessness and extortion. The worsening law and order situation witnessed the rise of radical elements and the free movement of militants and radicals parading the streets of Imphal in police/armed forces uniforms. The state government was brought to its knees by the radical elements who made Meitei MLAs and MPs recite an oath at Kangla Fort with the tacit blessing of a befuddled team from the MHA.
More than half of the guns looted from police armories are still in the hands of radical elements on both sides. The police and security forces are not doing anything to stop unlawful activities, lending credence to the suspicion that there are oral orders not to take any action against radical elements in possession of looted guns. With the blame for all the continuing ills of Manipur caused by the unresolved ethnic conflict heaped on the BJP governments in the state and center, the BJP lost the support of the people, resulting in resounding defeats by unprecedented margins of over 83,000 to over 100,000 votes in both parliamentary seats of Manipur.
In Manipur, the Meiteis went against the BJP for ushering in lawlessness, extortion, and causing price rises and misery in the state. The Kuki-Zo voted for the Congress in the Outer Manipur constituency as they wanted to punish the BJP for abandoning them and the five Kuki-Zo BJP MLAs (out of a total of ten MLAs) in favor of the predominantly Meitei Hindu community. The Kuki-Zo are not in favor of voting for the Naga People’s Front (NPF) due to their proximity with the NSCN, their bête noire, and their alliance with the BJP. The association of the NPF with the BJP became a curse for the NPF as people started distancing themselves from the NPF. Corrective actions to resolve the crisis in Manipur need to be taken post haste by the BJP-led coalition government at the center to prevent further erosion of their support in the northeastern states.
The chief minister of Assam seems to have understood why the BJP and its allies were defeated in states with a predominant Christian population. The ongoing Manipur conflict seems to have prompted church leaders to become proactive like their counterparts in Mizoram to save the people from an anti-minority political party and their associates. The church leaders cannot be blamed for their proactive action as they were pushed to save the people from the anti-minority policies of the BJP.
Now that the BJP is forced to lead a coalition government at the center, there is hope that the strident anti-minority policies will be watered down for fear of ruffling the feathers of its powerful coalition partners.
Ngaranmi Shimray is an activist and political observer based in New Delhi. Views are personal. Shimray2011@gmail.com. Feedback/comment @Aran Shimray on X
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