Manipur has been in a state of unrest with periodic violence for the past twenty two months. The situation is becoming increasingly complex, with various stakeholders presenting differing perspectives based on their interests, leading the public to normalize violence. With N. Biren Singh’s resignation as Chief Minister, the absence of a chosen successor has created uncertainty in the state’s leadership. This has made it difficult to ensure smooth governance while adhering to the constitutional deadline. And for the past few days, after a brief yet intense meeting with big leaders in Delhi, an MP from Odisha was assigned the task of making an ultimate attempt to select the state’s legislative head. On February 13, four days after Manipur Chief Minister N. Biren Singh resigned, President’s Rule was imposed, and the Assembly was placed under suspended animation.
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Despite challenges to his position even before the onset of violence, N. Biren Singh has managed to retain power. However, retaining his position could have brought multiple challenges, so he preferred to exit calmly. Throughout the prolonged violence, there have been claims that N. Biren Singh followed directives from the Centre, a point even mentioned by Union Home Minister Amit Shah. It is possible that during this period, control over certain stakeholders previously managed by the Chief Minister may have shifted to the Centre.
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Delhi’s two-step plan involves recovering weapons seized from the state police and cornering armed groups through direct orders, followed by initiating dialogue between the leaders of both sides. To facilitate this, an MP from Odisha has been assigned to organize formal meetings and select a capable legislature for the task. The growing perception that only Meiteis can serve as the Chief Minister of Manipur has become the norm, shaping leadership choices as part of Delhi’s counterinsurgency strategy in a state where insurgency remains active. In this process, both state and non-state actors often develop a symbiotic relationship, making it essential for the head of the legislature to maintain ties with insurgents through their frontal groups to exert influence over the population.
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As mentioned above, controlling both state institutions and non-state actors takes time, especially for those seeking to lead the state. While N. Biren Singh has long demonstrated his capabilities, even managing to recover arms and briefly contain armed groups, he is now sidelined for various reasons, including opposition from Kuki MLAs to his continuation. On the other hand, Kuki MLAs now have started voicing their concerns, stating that while N. Biren Singh has been removed, their primary demand remains the separation of administration. Delhi now faces the dilemma of fulfilling both criteria, as they struggle to find a Meitei MLA capable of executing their directives. Despite this, some valley MLAs, seemingly unaware of the fate of certain legislators who were publicly beaten two decades ago during the Indo-Naga ceasefire agreement, are attempting to hold onto power despite the ongoing political instability.
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At a time when the BJP is widely known for forcibly imposing its government in several states, including Manipur after the last assembly elections, losing control due to its inability to select a successor for N. Biren Singh appears disastrous for its “double-engine” governance strategy. Moreover, assigning just an MP to find a solution appears to many in the state as a lack of seriousness from Delhi. As the task was assigned, Sambit Patra has been making continuous efforts to retain BJP’s hold, while the Governor, a former Home Secretary and close associate of Amit Shah, is closely monitoring the situation, seemingly favoring himself over Patra.
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With six months since Manipur’s last legislative assembly sitting, Delhi seems to be seeking a leader who will strictly adhere to its directives while ensuring that any consequences fall on the local legislative head—not the central government—as it decides on President’s Rule in the state with the assembly under the suspended animation. The absence of leadership, which remains narrowly focused on the Meiteis and the BJP while overlooking potential leaders from the Nagas and Kukis, highlights the irony of Delhi-Manipur relations and foreshadows further complexities in the future.
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Damudor Arambam is an independent researcher with a Ph.D. from the Centre for the Study of Law and Governance, JNU.
(The opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Ukhrul Times. Ukhrul Times values and encourages diverse perspectives.)
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