THE WRITING on the wall was there right from the time the 2024 parliamentary elections were announced. No one came forward for BJP tickets for both the parliamentary constituencies of Manipur. For the Outer Manipur constituency, the NPF aggressively foisted its candidate and the BJP, bereft of any ticket seekers, was relieved to support its ally. In the Inner Manipur constituency, there was a drama and the BJP found their fall guy in gentleman – Shri Th. Basanta Singh, education minister. But in a state ravaged by a year-old ethnic conflict between the Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities, both the candidates of the NDA did not stand a chance of convincing voters that their party would ensure the safety of the people.
The BJP ruled state government failed to provide security to both the Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities that they took up the fight against each other by looting guns from the police armories. More than half of the looted guns are still with them ostensibly to protect themselves from each other. Having failed in providing security, coupled with the inept handling of the aftermath of the 3rd May 2023 conflict resulting in a state of lawlessness and the rise of radical elements, how could the people of the state repose faith in the ruling dispensation? The Prime Minister belonging to the same political party did not deem it important to visit the state and assuage the fears of the people.
The resounding defeat of the NPF and BJP candidate by over 80,000 to one lakh votes by the Congress was not surprising. The people voted out the BJP to punish them and not because they like Congress. The NPF was shown the door for their close association with the BJP. It was the communal situation in Manipur that pushed the people to look for alternatives other than the BJP and this resulted in the Congress candidate getting elected in both constituencies. There was no magic involved as the people had already decided to punish the ruling party for their poor handling of the communal situation. The outcome was a foregone conclusion and hence the reluctance of BJP bigwigs to contest and a sacrificial lamb was chosen for the slaughter in the Inner constituency.
But the dynamics in the Outer constituency were quite different. The BJP has lost its charm in the hill areas of Manipur, and this is seen from the fact that there was no one seeking a BJP ticket to contest the election from the Outer Manipur constituency. The Kuki-Zo decided to stay away from elections and did not put up any candidate from their community. Some of the frontal organizations of the Kuki called for a boycott of elections, and it was effective in Kangpokpi district. However, in Churachandpur district, the strategic decision taken by the Kuki-Zo communities, comprising mainly of Kuki, Paite, Hmar, Zomi, etc., who voted en bloc for the Congress candidate yielded the desired result—the enemy was punished.
This strategic move resulted in the transfer of close to a lakh and a half votes for the Congress candidate. A double whammy against the NPF candidate took place with a Poumai Naga candidate taking away more than 80,000 votes. This and the other independent Zeliang Naga candidate together taking away close to one lakh votes broke the back of the NPF candidate, and he lost by a margin of 83,000-odd votes. An analysis of the data shows that six assembly constituencies of Churachandpur district gave 93% of their votes to the Congress, and this was the gambit that won the game.
The strategic move of the Kuki-Zo tribes along with the loss of close to one lakh Naga votes to independent Naga candidates sealed the fate of the front runner NPF candidate.
This election, perhaps, further revealed the waning influence of the organisation that calls the shot in the Naga hills.
With a hung parliament and a weak coalition government at the centre, the dream of an early solution of the Naga peace talks and other talks with armed groups may recede further into the background.
Ngaranmi Shimray is an activist and political observer based in New Delhi. Views are personal. Shimray2011@gmail.com. Feedback/comment @Aran Shimray on X
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