ARE THE Nagas dreaming? The Meiteis are attempting to grab ancestral Naga lands currently occupied by Kuki-Zo in areas surrounding the Imphal valley (part of Sadar Hills/Kangpokpi) by becoming Scheduled Tribes (ST). The Kuki-Zo tribes are likely to receive district/territorial councils under the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution for the areas they inhabit. The Nagas could miss out, as they may be asked to wait for a settlement under the Framework Agreement (FA) by the NSCN, which is unlikely to occur in the next five years due to coalition politics. Solving the Manipur crisis has become urgent as the conflict has dragged on for more than a year. A district/territorial council under the Sixth Schedule may be the most plausible outcome for the Kuki-Zo tribes. The Manipur Naga areas might miss the opportunity if the NSCN decides to wait for a settlement under the FA, a scenario that cannot be ruled out.
The Meiteis have made their moves. They want land in the Hill Areas of Manipur, which they cannot possess as tribal lands are constitutionally protected. They plan to overcome this protection by arguing, through outdated and irrelevant ethnographic studies and socio-economic surveys, that they are backward and primitive, deserving of being classified as ST. Several justifications are presented by the three Meitei ST demand organizations, claiming tribal traits, backwardness, primitiveness, and an existential crisis. This is self-deprecating and self-denigrating, considering the Meiteis are advanced, having more doctors, engineers, lawyers, bureaucrats, and academicians than all the tribes of Manipur combined. Everyone knows there are no recent ethnographic studies or socio-economic surveys as required by the Ministry of Tribal Affairs (MTA). Yet, pressure is mounted on the state government by the three Meitei ST demand organizations to send the outdated reports to the government of India. They know that recent studies would not be in their favor and are reluctant to pressurize the government to institute new studies. Regardless of the risk of triggering a wider conflict between tribals and non-tribals, they continue to insist on sending the old reports. They should instead request a new ethnographic study and a fresh socio-economic survey by an independent third party, as upheld by the Manipur High Court.
The Kuki-Zo have made their position clear following the May 2023 ethnic clashes. They are not allowed back to the Imphal valley, where the legislative, judicial, and administrative machineries are located. The state government has been functioning without them for more than a year. The Kuki-Zo have demanded a separate administration, and their current reality of being banished from the Imphal valley has made their demand for a Union Territory (UT) more substantial than in the initial days of ethnic conflict. Now that the BJP is heading a coalition government, it can no longer deal with the Manipur crisis with indifference as before. They are now answerable to their coalition partners and an invigorated opposition. The central government is now firmly on the path to finding a solution but will face several challenges.
The Nagas of Manipur have been neutral in the Meitei and Kuki-Zo ethnic conflict but now face a new reality in Chandel and Kamjong areas. Large numbers of Myanmarese refugees fleeing the military junta have entered the Naga areas, outnumbering the natives. There has been heavy deployment of security forces, heightening tensions between the natives and the refugees, exacerbated by the presence of Kuki militants and the deaths of a few Naga freedom fighters. This emerging situation has alarmed the Nagas and may compel them to restrategize their policy to deal with the new challenges.
The demand for Sixth Schedule district councils has been there since the 1970s and 1980s, with recent efforts deferred in the hope that the FA would result in greater concessions. However, hope for an early resolution of the Naga peace talks has receded as the BJP has lost its majority in the Lok Sabha and would need a consensus to push through a Naga solution entailing an amendment to the Constitution. The resolution of the Manipur crisis will also require consensus for passing a bill to amend the Constitution for Sixth Schedule arrangements for the Kuki-Zo tribes of Manipur. Any settlement for the Kuki-Zo tribes increases the potential for another conflict between the Nagas and Kuki-Zo tribes over territorial jurisdiction. The Nagas will not agree to the inclusion of Naga ancestral land in Kangpokpi, Chandel, and Tengnoupal districts under the Kuki-Zo district/territorial council. Furthermore, the Nagas would not like to be left out without a similar administrative arrangement for the Naga areas. They have already waited for 27 years since the 1997 Indo-Naga ceasefire agreement. Considering the likelihood of waiting another five years, the Nagas would support the idea of accepting a Sixth Schedule district/territorial council for Naga areas of Manipur. But if the decision is to wait for a final settlement on the lines of the FA, the likelihood of disappointment among the Nagas cannot be ruled out. The Nagas of Manipur will not tolerate a Sixth Schedule district/territorial council for the Kuki-Zo tribes without a similar arrangement for themselves. Furthermore, the risk of a new conflict cannot be dismissed if the territorial jurisdiction of the Kuki-Zo district/territorial council includes the ancestral Naga areas of Kangpokpi, Tengnoupal, and Chandel districts.
A highly volatile situation is likely to emerge with the move for granting some special administrative/Sixth Schedule arrangement for the Kuki-Zo if it includes Kangpokpi, Tengnoupal, and Chandel districts, which are claimed by Nagas as their ancestral lands. People in Kamjong and Chandel areas are already suspicious that the deployment of large numbers of security forces is to protect the Kuki-Zo tribes and to preempt ethnic violence. Tensions are running high in the border areas, and the central government will have to pursue their efforts for a peaceful solution to the Manipur crisis with care and tact.
The Indo-Naga peace talks have become a waiting game for the government of India and Naga negotiators as they are bogged down ostensibly on the issues of a flag and constitution (Yehzabo). Everyone knows that the special constitutional provisions for a flag and state constitution in respect of J&K have been deleted from the Constitution. For a diverse country like India, it is difficult to envisage a situation where such demands would be conceded when similar existing provisions have been removed recently. Without a single party in majority in Parliament, the way forward is through consensus building, which, given the current coalition politics, is remote. Under the current circumstances, Nagas will have to wait for another five years before any substantive peace talks take place. Many Naga personalities who were in their sixties when the Indo-Naga ceasefire agreement was signed in 1997 may not live to see peace in their lifetime.
The Nagas of Manipur will have to modify their strategy. The Meiteis are clear about their intention of grabbing tribal lands in the Hill Areas. The immediate danger of land grab by the Meiteis is faced by the Kuki-Zo tribes as their immediate neighbors surrounding most of the Imphal valley. However, the lands currently occupied by the Kuki-Zo in the foothills adjacent to the Imphal valley are the ancestral lands of the Nagas, who will not allow them to be included in the territorial jurisdiction of the Kuki-Zo district/territorial council.
In the ongoing fight between the Meiteis and Kuki-Zo, no one appears to be winning, but it is clear that the Kuki-Zo have shown their potential for nuisance. They have attempted to create a new stranglehold on NH-37 via Jiribam besides NH-2 via Kangpokpi. Ukhrul areas are also vulnerable to similar blockades on NH-202 via Litan and the road to Sinakeithei. The people of Manipur have fine-tuned the art of using bandhs of National Highways (NH) to pressurize the state government to meet their demands. Such pressure tactics are likely to continue.
The strategy of the Kuki-Zo, exposed in some documents circulated on social media, has stated blockade as a tool to fight for their demand. The time has come to do away with the nuisance of economic blockade by exploring the possibility of legislation that attracts penal actions, both fines and imprisonment, for disrupting or stopping free vehicular movement on National Highways. This is of vital importance to ward off the possibility of communities resorting to ethnic cleansing of troublesome stranglehold spots to overcome their fear of an existential crisis.
The Naga CSOs (Civil Society Organisations) cannot sit back and wait for a final settlement under the Framework Agreement while the likelihood of the Kuki-Zo getting Sixth Schedule empowered local self-government is under active consideration by the Centre. The Naga CSOs of Manipur should make a similar demand as a precursor to the FA ushering in an administrative arrangement, which would be bigger and better when the Indo-Naga peace talks finally conclude. The lands of the Nagas in Manipur must also get a Sixth Schedule administrative arrangement for themselves along with the Kuki-Zo tribes. As the phrase goes, ‘strike while the iron is hot,’ the Naga CSOs should take advantage of the emerging circumstances.
Ngaranmi Shimray is an activist and political observer based in New Delhi. Views are personal. Shimray2011@gmail.com. Feedback/comment @Aran Shimray on X
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